As happens in every election cycle, a lot of attention has been paid to national polls this year. But as many political analysts have pointed out, the polls that really affect the election come from so-called swing states, like Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. How did we get here?
Until the last few decades, states like New York and California weren’t consistently Democratic or Republican. So what changed? Political scientist Thomas Holbrook explores the causes in his recent book, Altered States: Changing Populations, Changing Parties, and the Transformation of the American Political Landscape.
Some of the change can be attributed to shifting populations and demographic changes in states throughout the country. But Holbrook says that changes in the parties themselves have had some of the biggest impact on which states vote for which party.
"Forty years ago in the 1970s, early 1980s, the relative religiosity of states really didn't have much to do with whether the states voted Democratic or Republican," says Holbrook. "And in part that's because the parties hadn't separated or differentiated themselves along the lines of these sort of cultural issues, social issues that have ties to organized religions."
"Forty years ago in the 1970s, early 1980s, the relative religiosity of states really didn't have much to do with whether the states voted Democratic or Republican."
Issues like same-sex marriage and abortion rights have caused political cleavages. "Now states where there are many more sort of fundamentalist Christians, are much more reliably Republican states. Whereas before, they were maybe kind of middle of the road, maybe even slightly Democratic. And states where there are many fewer fundamental Christians, are more likely to vote Democratic now than they were in the 70s or 80s," says Holbrook.
Holbrook has also explored the impact of higher education on voting, which he has found is a good indicator on whether a state will vote Republican or Democratic. "States that have seen greater increases in the level of education, are states that have moved really pretty dramatically in the Democratic direction," says Holbrook. "And states where the percent with advanced degrees has grown the slowest, are states that have moved more Republican."
